Hen or Rooster? Black Beauty here won't tell us!
Most communities allow backyard hens (girl chickens). These feathered pets provide delicious eggs and are fun to watch. However, you can't keep a crowing rooster (boy chicken) in a neighborhood. Some of the neighbors might not like a feathered alarm clock waking them at sunrise everyday.
It is very hard to tell if a young chick is going to turn into a hen or a rooster. We have 10 chicks, so how many will be hens? We decided to do a little probability exercise to look at the question. You can play along too, just find 10 coins and a piece of paper.
Each coin represents one chick.We'll pretend that heads up means it is a hen and tails up is a rooster. You have a fifty percent chance of getting a heads just like you have a fifty percent chance of getting a hen. That means on average half of chickens are hens and half of coin flips are heads. Below you see the graph that we made to keep track of our data. Maybe you want to make one too! You can send me a picture and I will add it to this post.
Shake up your pennies and drop them on the table. Find out how many heads ('hens') you have and fill in or X a box above that number on the x-axis (the one that goes across the bottom).
Here is a how it looked after we flipped our coins 3 times. On our third flip we got ZERO hens! We really don't want that to happen.
After 20 flips we are starting to see a pattern that numbers in the middle are more likely.
We switched to blue for flips 21-40 so you can see how our pattern changes. It looks like the left and right sides are evening out as we gather more data.
After 60 flips our data went off our graph, oops! Each X on our graph represents a group of chicks that we could have adopted. Our graph shows that it is most likely that we will get 5 hens. What does your graph look like? Do you want to guess how many of our 10 are hens? Remember, any number from 0-10 is possible, but the data can help you guess which numbers are most likely.
Bonus: Can you figure out why it is more likely to get 5 than 0 or 10? How many ways can you get each number of hens? You might want to play with smaller numbers first. For instance if there were 2 chicks you could have boy/boy, boy/girl, girl/boy or girl girl. It is more likely that there is one girl than 0 or 2. Can you find the possible combinations for other numbers?
The whole chick story: Is there really a 50 percent chance that each of our chicks is a hen? We tried to look for advanced wing and tail feather development, more timid birds and the alternating wing feather pattern found in week-old hens of some breeds. Never having had chicks our own before they looked more like a squiggling peeping mass of cuteness than a bunch of future layers and roosters, so we are still probably right around 50%.